As we know main communication suites that we have for Apple Devices are based or at least related with XMPP (IChat, Adium, Bonjour Protocol, etc...).
You might also have noticed that there was no native application on IPhone capable of doing IM or VoIP Calls.
I presume you know the reasons right? IPhone was subsidized by Carriers in order to kick off usage of GPRS Data and increase SMS traffic. Creating the bases for the non sense block of VoIP over 3G on IPhone, as the main goals were conflicting.
Apple always knew that they could not block it forever, although why not block for a while, as we don't have any potential competitor and we can get some extra revenues?
These are all no longer valid, old facts.
The current market is different in many important aspects, such as:
- There are competitors for IPhone market.
- SMS Traffic is reached its maximum peak as it is fated to die due: IM, MicroBlog, Push Notifications, etc...
- WiFi HotSpots are way more spread nowadays.
- VoIP Providers Usage is stronger than ever.
- Carriers started the surrender and changed the focus to DataPlan and aggregated services. 3G is the new goal for operators as they MUST offer an Internet solution or be switched to a WiFi alternative.
- Nokia Platform Maemo is completely focused on Internet Services and Communications.
Let's put the pieces together and reverse engineer the plan based on current available facts:
- Apple opens Jingle/P2P Job Positions on September.
- One week after Motorola announces their Android Phone, Apple announces 3G Calling won't be blocked on AppStore anymore for AT&T and Verizon.
- US Carriers blogged and announced to be Data Plan friendly.
- Nokia Maemo N900 will be release with tons of IM and Communication tools in a matter of weeks from now.
Having 3G Calling supported on AppStore is the best path to avoid complains about a native App that could do VoIP natively. Which turns out to be very handy to be done using Jingle as the main target is not landlines, but other IPhone/Apple Users, consuming DataPlan and not cannibalizing the last remain landline traffic opportunity. Besides the easy path as Apple already have XMPP based applications. Meaning:
Apple will release a native IM Application with VoIP Capability for IPhone/IPod and Apple products. It is very likely to be Jingle based.
Apple still rely on Carriers for IPhone massive distribution. Meaning:
From now on, Apple will do as much as possible to push 3G usage up. Including Adobe Flash Capabilities in order to increase audio/video streaming usage.